Managing Decline and a New Opportunity for Growth

"This Episcopal Church is in the throes of creative ferment, yearning to find a new congruence that will discover emerging life in new soil, and refreshed growth in the plantings of former years."

Presiding Bishop Katherine Jefferts-Schori

1. I've been thinking about two facts:The Episcopal Church in Western Washington is in numerical decline; and,
2. There is a demographic tidal wave headed our way.

I see opportunities in both.

With respect to the decline, this means that there are fewer Episcopalians with each passing year even though the general population is increasing faster than ever. But our land and buildings aren't shrinking. So, if we're smart about this, we can put our land and buildings to the best productive economic use to maximize income. That will enable us to have a disproportionate influence on society notwithstanding our small size. Note, maximize income. That does not mean selling out. I think selling property is not only unwise, short-sighted, and poor stewardship, but it may even be a breach of fiduciary duty. Buildings and land are assets, cash is not

But how can we determine what that best productive use is? Ask the market.

Here's an example. The Diocese owns several acres of land just north of Bellingham. Currently, there are several discussions I'm aware of about how to use it. A farm to grow food for the hungry? Apartments for the homeless? Assisted living for the aged? What has so far been missing from these conversations is the fact that the property is located in one of the fastest growing areas of Whatcom County. While I am merely using this piece of property as an example because I'm familiar with it, the best use may be a long-term sophisticated commercial real estate lease. That would generate the most revenue, which could then be used to buy more food than we could grow ourselves, to rent more apartments for the homeless, or to build a bigger assisted living facility. Or maybe we should just use the proceeds to provide grants to organizations or people who do those things best while the church focuses on proclaiming the Kingdom of God, which is what we do best. I'm not saying that's necessarily the answer, but I do believe stewardship requires is to be economically efficient with our property. At the very least, a church building sitting empty and unused 6 days a week is a stewardship "fail."

As for the wave of the future, it's what marketers call Generation Z, people born since 1995. People under 19 years old are the single largest demographic group in the US, over quarter of the population. This group has some identifiable characteristics and attitudes that ought to be of interest to the church:

• They may in some ways be more receptive to tradition than Millenials, Generation X, and the Baby Boom. My instincts tell me that Generation Z wants nothing to do with how the Baby Boom expresses itself; Boomers have been "in power" for way too long. For example, Generation Z doesn't relate to any comparison-- even by way of contrast-- to "the 1960's" or the "19 anythings", for that matter.
• 26% of them are volunteering.
• 25% of them live in poverty.
• 30% of them are putting off graduating from High School. Why?
• They worry about the economy and the environment, blaming previous generations [that's us, folks] for trashing both. Sam Torvend has been saying this for years.
• 26% of them would need to fly to visit most of their social network "friends." I infer that this means a lack of authentic physical community locally.
• 25% of them have left Facebook so far in 2014.

I have a hunch that traditional (i.e. pre-Baby Boom) church may be a big hit with them. It is no accident that many students seem to prefer the traditional language of the Lord's Prayer, a choral mass, etc. to the more casual approaches of the Baby Boom. We see this in the popularity of Taizé in Bellingham, Anglo-Catholic High Mass at St. Paul's in Queen Anne, and Compline at the Cathedral. The demographics of Generation Z indicate that reacting to decline by trying to articulate a Baby Boomer "relevance" is actually likely to aggravate the situation. And this includes the Boomer, Gen X, and Millenneal tendency to exhaust the church over an endless series of essentially external media-driven secular "issues." The opportunity for growth may very well be in the more traditional expressions of the Episcopal faith, actively promoted using the science of marketing communications.

And guess what the Episcopal Church does extraordinarily well? Tradition.

If we keep our heads economically and play to (and communicate) our strengths, I see a tremendous opportunity for growth.

Here's a fascinating marketing presentation on the characteristics of Generation Z: http://www.slideshare.net/sparksandhoney/generation-z-final-june-17


Brad